football
Accumulator
A bet combining selections that generally must all win.
Knowledge before risk
Education centre
Understanding Betting, Probability and Trading: A Beginner’s Guide.
Start with understanding
A little knowledge. Better decisions.
Probability, betting and trading — explained in plain English.
Explore the education centre34 terms
general
Baseline
A simple reference method used to judge a more complex model.
lottery
Bonus ball
An extra drawn number used for some prize divisions.
options
Break-even
The price where gains cover costs under a stated strategy.
general
Brier score
A measure of how close predicted probabilities were to actual outcomes; lower is better.
general
Calibration
Whether predicted chances match how often outcomes actually happen.
options
Call option
A contract giving the buyer the right to buy at a set price before or at expiry, depending on the contract.
lottery
Cold numbers
Numbers that appeared relatively rarely in a chosen period.
options
Delta
An approximate option-price change for a small change in the underlying price.
lottery
Draw
An event where the winning lottery numbers are selected.
football
Expected goals
An estimate of how likely shots were to become goals.
general
Expected value
The average gain or loss over many repetitions under stated assumptions.
options
Expiration
The date an option contract ends.
football
Fixture
A scheduled football match.
options
Gamma
How quickly delta changes as the underlying price changes.
lottery
Hot numbers
Numbers that appeared relatively often in a chosen period.
football
Implied probability
The chance suggested by decimal odds before bookmaker margin adjustments.
lottery
Independent events
Events whose chances are not changed by earlier results.
lottery
Jackpot
The top prize available in a lottery game.
football
Leg
One selection inside a betting slip.
general
Monte Carlo simulation
Repeating a model with many random outcomes to explore possibilities.
lottery
Number combination
One complete set of numbers selected for a game.
lottery
Number frequency
How often a number appeared in past draws.
lottery
Number gap
The number of draws since a number last appeared.
general
Odds
Odds can mean a chance of winning or the price a bookmaker offers.
options
Premium
The price paid to buy an option.
general
Probability
How likely an outcome is, expressed as a percentage or fraction.
options
Put option
A contract giving the buyer the right to sell at a set price before or at expiry, depending on the contract.
football
Stake
The amount of money put at risk on a bet.
options
Strike price
The price at which an option lets its holder buy or sell.
options
Theta
An estimate of how option value changes as time passes.
football
Value bet
A selection whose estimated chance is higher than the chance implied by its price.
options
Vega
Sensitivity of option price to changes in implied volatility.
options
Volatility
How much a price moves around; implied volatility is inferred from option prices.